The world has witnessed a year that was about 1.5 °C higher than preindustrial temperatures for the first time in history. The amount that the earth warms more will have a significant impact on regional heat, drought, and precipitation extremes.
Where is climate change most likely to affect? These interactive maps provide a revealing look.
2023 has officially been recorded as the hottest year in history, with global temperatures averaging between 1.35 °C and 1.54 °C above preindustrial levels, according to leading temperature tracking projects. This is a significant increase, especially considering the 1.5 °C target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. As temperatures rise, it is crucial to understand the implications of this milestone and explore options to prevent further warming.
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Achieving the 1.5 °C or even the 2 °C targets of the Paris Agreement requires more than a single year or a few days of high temperatures. Climate scientists typically use a sustained 20-year period to define these targets, during which global temperatures must average 1.5 °C or 2 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline.
The path we take moving forward is critical. Current policies are insufficient to meet emission reduction pledges, potentially leading to a temperature increase between 2.2 °C and 3.4 °C above preindustrial levels by century’s end. While the 1.5 °C goal is likely unattainable, aggressive actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could still limit warming to less than 2 °C, significantly mitigating climate change's local impacts. As Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University and The Nature Conservancy's chief scientist, emphasizes, "Every 10th of a degree matters."
Interactive Maps Show Future Climate Risks
To illustrate future climate impacts, PNAS Front Matter has created interactive maps and charts using projections from Probable Futures, a nonprofit that helps plan for climate extremes. The maps show potential heat, drought, and flood scenarios for various regions under different warming levels.
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Probable Futures employed the CORDEX-CORE simulation framework from the World Climate Research Programme to produce localized projections of extreme heat, humidity, drought, and precipitation.
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Deadly Heat and Humidity
People cool themselves primarily through sweating, but high humidity can make this ineffective. The "wet bulb temperature" measures this dangerous combination of heat and humidity. A wet bulb temperature of 35 °C is considered the survivability limit for most people, but recent research by Jennifer Vanos and colleagues suggests lower thresholds are more realistic. For example, Kolkata, India, could face over 50 days annually with wet bulb temperatures exceeding 30 °C in a 3 °C warmer world, compared to around 20 today.
Devastating Droughts
Droughts are projected to intensify globally as temperatures rise. For example, Cairo, Egypt, could see a 75% chance of year-long extreme droughts with 3 °C warming, compared to 25% today. This would severely impact agriculture and food security.
Destructive Floods
More intense storms and extreme rainfall events are anticipated with climate change. In Derna, Libya, for instance, unprecedented rainfall from Storm Daniel caused catastrophic flooding. The risk of such events increases as global temperatures rise, as warmer air holds more water vapor, leading to heavier downpours.
Conclusion
As global warming accelerates, understanding and planning for its local impacts is essential. The interactive tools from Probable Futures provide valuable insights into the potential consequences of climate change, helping decision-makers and the public prepare for the challenges ahead.
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